IL-14: Results Open Thread

9:48 PM: 94% in, and Foster is holding onto a 4500 vote lead.  With most of the outstanding precincts being in Kane county, this one is in the bag for Foster.

Let’s paint IL-14 a bright shade of blue.

9:43 PM: 88% of precincts reporting, and Foster is looking good at 53%.  I’m calling it for Foster.  Oberweis just doesn’t have The Math.

9:33 PM ET: With 74% of precincts reporting, Foster’s 53%-47% lead is holding firm.  This one is looking good, folks.

UPDATE (J. Hell): With 55% of precincts reporting, Foster (D) is leading Oberweis (R) by a 53%-47% margin.

While we’re at it, take a look at the county-by-county returns and compare them with the 2006 numbers.  Foster is (so far), taking an 8-point lead in Kane county, the district’s population anchor.  This is the same county that Hastert won by 18 points in 2006.  Considering that Hastert won the district overall by 20 points, this is very, very encouraging news for Foster.

Polls close at 7pm Central/8pm Eastern.

26 thoughts on “IL-14: Results Open Thread”

  5. The lead appears to be holding steady and the Oberweis is running out of places to make up the 4500 vote deficit.

    Great news for Democrats.  

  7. Still a six point lead.

    We did it folks. We took the speakers seat. We made the NRCC blow a third of it’s budget.

    Wow. Great work all.

  8. Hah, this is awesome, and it’s just the beginning for the Democrats, we’re putting the GOP on notice tonight, not a one of you is safe!

  9. Gosh, this is so awesome! Now we can think about increasing our House majority by 20-25 seats! Isn’t this wonderful?

    You know, I was just thinking- large numbers of people these days are more interested in hearing what’s happening with celebrities, such as Miley Cyrus’ latest stunts and Britney Spears’ troubles. In my honest opinion, those folks need to wake up and pay much more attention on the troubles that are afflicting our nation. And we have a lot of them, that’s for sure.

  11. How long it has been since IL-14 has had a Democrat House Rep?  Hastert has held it for 21 years, so it has been at least that long, but perhaps longer.  

    In the LA-6 race with 37% in Woody Jenkins and the Dem with the funny name that starts with a C both had 51%.  

  12. This seat was largely competitive because it’s a pro-Democratic year, and the Republican incumbent retired.  

    To put this in perspective… 26 other clowns like Hastert are retiring.  

    Say hello to a 234-201 majority!

    (If you don’t count the three(?) special elections we still have to finish – LA-01, LA-06, CA-12)

  13. according to wiki, the 14th was held by a GOP guy Grotberg for 1 term before hastert took it so it’s been at least since ’84.

  14. I wasn’t around to post last night, but there were big cheers and shouts of victory among me and several of my friends last then.

  15. i know rothenburg or cook just switched it to tossup in the last week, but my sense is that it wasn’t even in our top 15 pickup opportunities!

  16. I covered the populated part of this district as a reporter many years ago, and here is my read on Bill

    Foster’s long-term prospects.

    Good news for Foster:

    1. Although it’s historically Republican, the district   like others outside Chicago is becoming more and more Democratic.  The increasing number of working women and the tens of thousands of newcomers from Chicago and suburbs closer to Chicago than this district portends demographic changes that should help Foster.

    2. Assuming the Democrats maintain their hold on the governor’s office and the state legislature (Obama or Attorney General Lisa Madigan will be the governor, not incumbent Blagoyevich), the district’s boundaries will be drawn more fairly for the 2012 election.  It is currently gerrymandered to protect Hastert from even a minor challenge because it includes rural areas that are 200 miles from Chicago.

    Bad news for Foster:

    1. Someday, although not this year, he will face someone other than Jim Oberweis.  Unless you live here, you can’t understand the depth of how much he is despised.  Name recognition is almost always an asset, but Foster’s lack of renown was a great benefit. Oberweis is VERY well known and very disliked.

        Oberweis has been trashing Republican primary colleagues for years — while losing four primaries.  This year’s primary foe refused to endorse him.  In 2004, he finished second in the primary for Obama’s seat, but

    Republicans turned to Maryland’s Alan Keyes, yes that Alan Keyes, when the winner withdrew.

    (Republican leaders forced the withdrawal because they were angry that divorce papers revealed he suggested to his wife that participating in a sex party might fix their marriage problems although the couple did nothing)

        When I worked for the local paper, the corporate office near San Diego prohibited it from endorsing Democrats for federal office (so much for the liberal media conspiracy), but it endorsed Foster. The paper is under different ownership, but the new owners are also very conservative.

    2. Currently, the district still includes geographically far-out rural areas where being a Democrat is

    practically equivalent to being a Communist.  Think about Columbus, Ohio, where the Democrats in 2006 won the populated parts of Deborah Price’s district, but lost the rural areas by ridiculous margins.  This district could replicate that one if the Republican is a decent human being.

    3. The district will probably lean Republican until 2012, and this will hurt Foster when there are other elections on the ballot.  On Saturday, the special election was the only one on the ballot.

    FYI: Districts currently held by Republicans Jerry Weller, Mark Kirk, and Peter Roskam are more amenable to Democratic challengers than Hastert’s, I mean Foster’s.  It’s possible that Democrats in Illinois could have a 14-5 edge in the U.S. House within a few years (I don’t think Roskam’s challenger this year is considered a credible threat).

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